Statistical risk assessments inform consequential decisions such as pretrial release in criminal justice, and loan approvals in consumer finance. Such risk assessments make counterfactual predictions, predicting the likelihood of an outcome under a proposed decision (e.g., what would happen if we approved this loan?). A central challenge, however, is that there may have been unmeasured confounders that jointly affected past decisions and outcomes in the historical data. This paper proposes a tractable mean outcome sensitivity model that bounds the extent to which unmeasured confounders could affect outcomes on average. The mean outcome sensitivity model partially identifies the conditional likelihood of the outcome under the proposed decision, popular predictive performance metrics (e.g., accuracy, calibration, TPR, FPR), and commonly-used predictive disparities. We derive their sharp identified sets, and we then solve three tasks that are essential to deploying statistical risk assessments in high-stakes settings. First, we propose a doubly-robust learning procedure for the bounds on the conditional likelihood of the outcome under the proposed decision. Second, we translate our estimated bounds on the conditional likelihood of the outcome under the proposed decision into a robust, plug-in decision-making policy. Third, we develop doubly-robust estimators of the bounds on the predictive performance of an existing risk assessment.

现实世界的行为通常是由多种代理之间复杂的相互作用来塑造的。为了可靠地研究多代理行为，无监督和自我监督的学习的进步使从轨迹数据中学到了各种不同的行为表示。迄今为止，还没有一组统一的基准测试，可以在广泛的行为分析设置中进行定量和系统地比较方法。我们的目的是通过引入来自现实世界行为神经科学实验的大规模，多代理轨迹数据集来解决这一问题，该数据集涵盖了一系列行为分析任务。我们的数据集由来自通用模型生物的轨迹数据组成，其中有960万帧的小鼠数据和440万帧的飞行数据，在各种实验环境中，例如不同的菌株，相互作用的长度和光遗传学刺激。框架的子集还包括专家注销的行为标签。我们数据集的改进对应于跨多种生物的行为表示，并能够捕获常见行为分析任务的差异。

历史上用于结果很少或数据收集昂贵的设置，与结果相关的采样与许多现代环境有关，在许多现代设置中，数据可用于偏见的目标人群（例如公共行政数据）。在依赖结果的采样下，未确定诸如平均风险差异和平均风险比率之类的常见效应措施，但条件上的优势比为。条件优势比的聚合具有挑战性，因为通常未确定汇总措施。此外，边际优势比可以大于所有条件优势比。如果我们使用标准算术平均值的替代聚合，则可以避免这种所谓的优势比的非碰撞能力。我们提供了一种对可折叠性的新定义，该定义使这种聚合方法的选择显式，并证明了几何汇总的优势比是可折叠的。我们描述了如何部分识别，估计和推断在结果依赖性抽样下的几何比值比。我们提出的估计器基于有效的影响函数，因此具有双重稳健风格的性能。

基于中央限制定理（CLT）的置信区间是经典统计的基石。尽管仅渐近地有效，但它们是无处不在的，因为它们允许在非常弱的假设下进行统计推断，即使不可能进行非反应性推断，通常也可以应用于问题。本文引入了这种渐近置信区间的时间均匀类似物。为了详细说明，我们的方法采用置信序列（CS）的形式 - 随着时间的推移均匀有效的置信区间序列。 CSS在任意停止时间时提供有效的推断，与需要预先确定样本量的经典置信区间不同，因此没有受到“窥视”数据的惩罚。文献中现有的CSS是非肿瘤的，因此不享受上述渐近置信区间的广泛适用性。我们的工作通过给出“渐近CSS”的定义来弥合差距，并得出仅需要类似CLT的假设的通用渐近CS。虽然CLT在固定样本量下近似于高斯的样本平均值的分布，但我们使用强大的不变性原理（来自Komlos，Major和Tusnady的1970年代的开创性工作），按照整个样品平均过程均匀地近似于整个样品平均过程。隐性的高斯过程。我们通过在观察性研究中基于双重稳健的估计量来得出非参数渐近级别的CSS来证明它们的实用性，即使在固定的时间方案中，也可能不存在非催化方法（由于混淆偏见）。这些使双重强大的因果推断可以连续监测并自适应地停止。

现代纵向研究在许多时间点收集特征数据，通常是相同的样本大小顺序。这些研究通常受到{辍学}和积极违规的影响。我们通过概括近期增量干预的效果（转换倾向分数而不是设置治疗价值）来解决这些问题，以适应多种结果和主题辍学。当条件忽略（不需要治疗阳性）时，我们给出了识别表达式的增量干预效果，并导出估计这些效果的非参数效率。然后我们提出了高效的非参数估计器，表明它们以快速参数速率收敛并产生均匀的推理保证，即使在较慢的速率下灵活估计滋扰函数。我们还研究了新型无限时间范围设置中的更传统的确定性效果的增量干预效应的方差比，其中时间点的数量可以随着样本大小而生长，并显示增量干预效果在统计精度下产生近乎指数的收益这个设置。最后，我们通过模拟得出结论，并在研究低剂量阿司匹林对妊娠结果的研究中进行了方法。

With an ever-growing number of parameters defining increasingly complex networks, Deep Learning has led to several breakthroughs surpassing human performance. As a result, data movement for these millions of model parameters causes a growing imbalance known as the memory wall. Neuromorphic computing is an emerging paradigm that confronts this imbalance by performing computations directly in analog memories. On the software side, the sequential Backpropagation algorithm prevents efficient parallelization and thus fast convergence. A novel method, Direct Feedback Alignment, resolves inherent layer dependencies by directly passing the error from the output to each layer. At the intersection of hardware/software co-design, there is a demand for developing algorithms that are tolerable to hardware nonidealities. Therefore, this work explores the interrelationship of implementing bio-plausible learning in-situ on neuromorphic hardware, emphasizing energy, area, and latency constraints. Using the benchmarking framework DNN+NeuroSim, we investigate the impact of hardware nonidealities and quantization on algorithm performance, as well as how network topologies and algorithm-level design choices can scale latency, energy and area consumption of a chip. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to compare the impact of different learning algorithms on Compute-In-Memory-based hardware and vice versa. The best results achieved for accuracy remain Backpropagation-based, notably when facing hardware imperfections. Direct Feedback Alignment, on the other hand, allows for significant speedup due to parallelization, reducing training time by a factor approaching N for N-layered networks.

The SINDy algorithm has been successfully used to identify the governing equations of dynamical systems from time series data. In this paper, we argue that this makes SINDy a potentially useful tool for causal discovery and that existing tools for causal discovery can be used to dramatically improve the performance of SINDy as tool for robust sparse modeling and system identification. We then demonstrate empirically that augmenting the SINDy algorithm with tools from causal discovery can provides engineers with a tool for learning causally robust governing equations.

When testing conditions differ from those represented in training data, so-called out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs can mar the reliability of black-box learned components in the modern robot autonomy stack. Therefore, coping with OOD data is an important challenge on the path towards trustworthy learning-enabled open-world autonomy. In this paper, we aim to demystify the topic of OOD data and its associated challenges in the context of data-driven robotic systems, drawing connections to emerging paradigms in the ML community that study the effect of OOD data on learned models in isolation. We argue that as roboticists, we should reason about the overall system-level competence of a robot as it performs tasks in OOD conditions. We highlight key research questions around this system-level view of OOD problems to guide future research toward safe and reliable learning-enabled autonomy.

The success of deep learning is largely due to the availability of large amounts of training data that cover a wide range of examples of a particular concept or meaning. In the field of medicine, having a diverse set of training data on a particular disease can lead to the development of a model that is able to accurately predict the disease. However, despite the potential benefits, there have not been significant advances in image-based diagnosis due to a lack of high-quality annotated data. This article highlights the importance of using a data-centric approach to improve the quality of data representations, particularly in cases where the available data is limited. To address this "small-data" issue, we discuss four methods for generating and aggregating training data: data augmentation, transfer learning, federated learning, and GANs (generative adversarial networks). We also propose the use of knowledge-guided GANs to incorporate domain knowledge in the training data generation process. With the recent progress in large pre-trained language models, we believe it is possible to acquire high-quality knowledge that can be used to improve the effectiveness of knowledge-guided generative methods.

Object detection models commonly deployed on uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) focus on identifying objects in the visible spectrum using Red-Green-Blue (RGB) imagery. However, there is growing interest in fusing RGB with thermal long wave infrared (LWIR) images to increase the performance of object detection machine learning (ML) models. Currently LWIR ML models have received less research attention, especially for both ground- and air-based platforms, leading to a lack of baseline performance metrics evaluating LWIR, RGB and LWIR-RGB fused object detection models. Therefore, this research contributes such quantitative metrics to the literature .The results found that the ground-based blended RGB-LWIR model exhibited superior performance compared to the RGB or LWIR approaches, achieving a mAP of 98.4%. Additionally, the blended RGB-LWIR model was also the only object detection model to work in both day and night conditions, providing superior operational capabilities. This research additionally contributes a novel labelled training dataset of 12,600 images for RGB, LWIR, and RGB-LWIR fused imagery, collected from ground-based and air-based platforms, enabling further multispectral machine-driven object detection research.